POULTRYINDONESIA, Jakarta – Live bird (LB) prices at the farm level reportedly experienced a significant decline from late December 2025 through mid-January 2026. This condition has sparked concern among farmers, primarily because selling prices have fallen well below the Cost of Production (HPP).

Heri Irawan, Secretary General of the Independent Poultry Farmers Association (PERMINDO), explained that the price drop began on December 24, 2025, and continues to this day, particularly in the Banten and West Java regions. During the school holiday period, farm-gate prices for live birds even touched the range of Rp16,000–Rp17,000 per kg.

According to Heri, one factor triggering the price weakness is the temporary halt in chicken absorption for the Free Nutritious Meal (MBG) Program during the school holidays. Chicken supplies previously prepared to support the program were not optimally absorbed, leading to a surplus at the farmer level.

“Regarding MBG, it’s actually more of a domino effect. Psychologically, during the two-week school break, LB prices at the farm level were corrected. Even though demand might have shifted to tourist areas, the recent school holidays still caused farm-gate prices to drop,” Heri stated during a discussion with Poultry Indonesia in Bogor on Wednesday (Jan 14).

He added that while the quantitative impact of MBG on meat demand is still debatable, he observes that the program heavily influences market sentiment, directly affecting price movements at the farmer level.

Impact on the Egg Market

On the other hand, Eti Marlina, Chairperson of the Independent Layer Farmers Association for Blitar, Kediri, Tulungagung, Malang, and Trenggalek (BKT NT), assessed that the MBG program still influences the egg market, though the level of significance requires further study. “To say MBG has no impact wouldn’t be accurate; it does. But is the impact significant? That is what’s interesting to discuss,” she said during an online discussion on Friday (Jan 16).

She highlighted the current phenomenon of falling egg prices at the farm level, specifically in Blitar, even though the MBG program has resumed following the school holidays. This is despite her information stating that the number of Nutritional Fulfillment Service Units (SPPG) has reached approximately 20,000 out of a target of 33,000—roughly two-thirds of the total.

“The fact is, egg prices are actually sliding (mlorot). Currently, farm-gate egg prices are below the Reference Purchase Price (HAP) at around Rp23,000 per kg, while the National Food Agency (Perbadan) reference price is Rp26,500 per kg. This is happening even though feed prices haven’t increased,” she revealed.

She compared this to the school holiday period, when farm-gate egg prices were relatively better, hovering around Rp25,000 per kg. According to her analysis, one supporting factor at that time was the shipment of eggs for disaster relief to Sumatra, which strengthened market absorption. “We must be wise in responding to these conditions. Don’t get carried away by the hype. All parties need to recalculate and maintain the balance of supply and demand,” Eti concluded.

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