POULTRYINDONESIA, Jakarta – Amid the fast-moving dynamics of the poultry industry, 2026 is projected to bring a mix of opportunities and challenges. These conditions are pushing industry players to become increasingly adaptive in responding to market changes, policies, and technological developments. Various notes, evaluations, and expectations were highlighted during the National Seminar on the 2026 Livestock Business Outlook, organized by the Indonesian Animal Health Product Association (ASOHI) on Tuesday (16/12) at Menara 165, South Jakarta.

The forum served as a strategic platform for poultry stakeholders to discuss industry dynamics over the past year, project future business directions, and formulate anticipatory measures to maintain sustainability and competitiveness of the national poultry sector. This was reflected in the attendance of various poultry-related associations, including the Indonesian Poultry Breeding Companies Association (GPPU), the Indonesian Feed Millers Association (GPMT), the Indonesian Smallholder Poultry Farmers Association (Pinsar Indonesia), ASOHI, as well as government representatives.

GPPU Chairman Achmad Dawami highlighted several poultry industry dynamics throughout 2025, particularly the ongoing oversupply of day-old chicks (DOC), which has put pressure on selling prices and profitability. He explained that DOC production reached approximately 3.5 billion chicks, while national demand was only around 3.2 billion. According to him, the oversupply was clearly evident in early 2025, especially during April, May, and June, when DOC supply was abundant and prices fell to very low levels. However, after a number of breeding companies decided to cull parent stock, the situation shifted. Entering the Maulid period, DOC supply increased unevenly and became relatively scarce, eventually driving prices up significantly.

“Overall, throughout 2025 the poultry industry showed positive development across breeding, feed, animal health products, and at the farmer level. For 2026, the government is targeting Indonesia’s economic growth at around 5.4 percent, with projected per capita chicken meat consumption reaching 14–15 kilograms per year. Under these conditions, I estimate that DOC demand will continue to increase, with live bird price trends playing a major role in determining DOC absorption,” he added.

Regarding the Free Nutritious Meal Program (Makan Bergizi Gratis/MBG), he assessed that in terms of quantity, the resulting increase in demand is not particularly significant. However, from a quality perspective, he hopes the program can serve as an effective educational tool to instill public awareness of the importance of consuming poultry products as an affordable and highly nutritious source of animal protein.

Meanwhile, GPMT Chairman Desianto B. Utomo projected feed industry growth in 2025 at 6.7 percent compared to 2024, when production reached 18.4 million tons. He explained that broiler feed production increased in 2025 in line with higher harvest weights. Growth was also seen in layer feed, particularly complete feed, driven by high corn prices that encouraged layer farmers to shift from self-mixing to factory-produced complete feed. Furthermore, Desianto noted that increased production of layer complete feed and concentrates was also influenced by rising demand, both as an impact of the MBG program and an increase in layer population estimated at around 7 percent.

“The feed industry is targeting production growth of 6 percent in 2026, taking into account DOC conditions that are expected to be similar to 2025, as well as corn prices, economic recovery, and consumer purchasing power. On the other hand, the poultry sector also requires government support, particularly in relation to the risk of imported chicken leg quarters (CLQ) from the United States, which could potentially undermine the national poultry industry that has already achieved self-sufficiency and employs around 10 percent of the national workforce,” he said.

A similar view was expressed by ASOHI Chairman Harris Priyadi. According to him, many parties had hoped that the MBG program would provide a significant boost to the poultry sector. However, reality on the ground shows that the impact has not yet been strongly felt—not because the program is not running, but because implementation and distribution have not been robust enough to significantly lift demand for poultry products, especially in the broiler sector. The animal health products industry, which closely follows poultry dynamics, has also felt the impact. When poultry stagnates, animal health products tend to follow the same rhythm.

“With the various opportunities available, the animal health products market in 2026 is projected to grow by around 10 percent compared to 2025. I predict there will be adjustments in prices and vaccination costs for poultry products administered via injection and drinking water. Antibiotic use during the rearing period tends to decline, while vaccination at hatcheries will become increasingly widespread. Conversely, the use of products through feed is expected to increase in line with higher feed production, which is projected to grow by around 6 percent,” he said.

Pinsar Indonesia board member Chandra P. Rahman stated that in 2026, demand for chicken meat and eggs is expected to increase and become more stable, largely driven by the implementation of the MBG program. He believes the program also has a positive impact on the poultry market by creating guaranteed demand through the presence of large-scale, regular buyers, thereby helping to reduce price volatility.

Nevertheless, Chandra warned that 2026 will still present a number of challenges. Smallholder farmers are required to meet MBG standards, ranging from product quality and hygiene to traceability. At the same time, competition with large-scale farms will continue, while feed prices remain one of the main risks that poultry business players must anticipate.

“For 2026, we see at least three possible scenarios. In the optimistic scenario, feed prices can be controlled, farmer cooperatives are involved as suppliers for the MBG program, and distribution infrastructure functions well, allowing farmers’ income to increase steadily. In the moderate scenario, the MBG program is implemented gradually. Organized farmers will be absorbed first, while small farmers who are not yet trained risk being left behind. In the pessimistic scenario, rising feed prices could suppress production, and MBG absorption may come only from large-scale farms, meaning smallholder farmers would not enjoy the positive impact of the program,” he concluded.