Behind its status as self-sufficient in chicken and eggs, the national poultry industry is still overshadowed by production surpluses, volatile prices, and production imbalances.

In the last five years, the dynamics of national poultry supply and demand have shown a repetitive pattern: production surpluses, price pressures at the farmer level, policy interventions, and then a return to the initial state. This pattern confirms that the primary issue facing Indonesia’s poultry industry is not merely production capacity, but rather the imbalance between the rate of supply growth and the market’s absorption capacity or field consumption.

A Recurring Dilemma

This condition is consistent with broiler supply and demand data over the last five years. Based on Figure 1, between 2020 and 2025, national broiler demand increased significantly, from approximately 2.72 million tons in 2020 to 3.87 million tons in 2025. In nominal terms, this additional demand is quite substantial and reflects that the domestic market still has ample room for expansion. However, at the same time, supply growth has moved faster. National poultry production increased from 3.22 million tons to approximately 4.28 million tons during the same period.

This disparity between supply and demand growth is the root of the recurring structural pressures within the poultry industry. Throughout 2020–2025, the broiler supply-demand balance was consistently in a surplus position. In fact, by 2025, national broiler supply reached approximately 4.28 million tons per year, while demand hovered around 3.87 million tons per year, creating a surplus of about 0.4 million tons per year—equivalent to 12.65% of total demand.

A similar trend occurred in the supply and demand for commercial eggs over the last five years. Based on Figure 2, during the 2020–2025 period, national demand for commercial eggs showed a consistent upward trend, aligned with rising incomes and per capita consumption. National demand increased from approximately 4.95 million tons in 2020 to 6.22 million tons in 2025. This increase is nominally significant and indicates that the domestic market remains in a growth phase.

Nevertheless, the growth rate of commercial egg supply once again outpaced demand. During the same period, national supply increased from 5.14 million tons in 2020 to approximately 6.54 million tons in 2025. This more aggressive production growth widened the structural imbalance between supply and demand.

This disparity is reflected in the commercial egg supply-demand balance, which remained consistently in surplus throughout 2020–2025. By 2025, the surplus widened further. In that year, national supply reached approximately 6.54 million tons per year, while demand was in the range of 6.22 million tons per year, resulting in a surplus of about 0.32 million tons per year, or roughly 5% of total national demand. This condition emphasizes that pressure on market equilibrium is likely to continue unless balanced with effective supply management.

In a discussion, the Chairman of the Indonesian Poultry Breeding Companies Association (GPPU), Achmad Dawami, asserted that while the national poultry industry has expanded rapidly in the last decade, this growth in production has not been fully met by a significant increase in public consumption. From a consumption standpoint, the growth in the Indonesian public’s intake remains relatively low.

“Production growth that is not balanced by increased consumption has created the poultry supply and demand imbalance we frequently see today. This equilibrium is vital. When supply is short, prices soar and disadvantage consumers. Conversely, when supply is excessive, prices plummet and harm business actors. If this condition persists, it will lead to bankruptcy. When many farmers go bankrupt, Indonesia will no longer be able to produce and will eventually depend on imports. As a result, we could be caught in a ‘food trap,’ and our food sovereignty would be threatened. Therefore, the balance of supply and demand is absolutely crucial,” Dawami emphasized.

This article is an excerpt from the Main Report (Laporan Utama) section of Poultry Indonesia Magazine, February 2026 edition. Read the full story in the February 2026 Edition of Poultry Indonesia Magazine. To subscribe or for more information, contact: https://wa.me/+6287780120754 or sirkulasipoultry@gmail.com.

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