POULTRYINDONESIA, Tangerang – The imbalance between supply and demand remains a recurring challenge for Indonesia’s poultry industry. Therefore, managing DOC production at the upstream level, including regulating Grandparent Stock (GPS) imports, requires collective attention from all industry stakeholders.

This was highlighted by Asrokh Nawawi, Chairman of the Indonesian Poultry Breeding Companies Association (GPPU), during the 2026 GPMT National Seminar, themed “From Challenges to Opportunities: Evaluating the Poultry Business in 2026, Accelerating Growth in 2027,” held at ICE BSD, Tangerang, on Thursday (November 5, 2026).

According to Asrokh, producing large numbers of chickens is not a difficult task for the industry. The real challenge lies in maintaining supply-demand balance to ensure that every link in the business chain, from breeding and farming to the feed industry, can operate sustainably and generate profits for all stakeholders.

“When it comes to DOC and the poultry industry, producing chickens is actually not difficult. We can produce billions of birds annually if needed. However, maintaining a supply-demand balance so that the industry remains stable and profitable for all stakeholders is the real challenge,” he explained.

One factor that requires attention is the changing management practices in commercial layer farming over recent years. Asrokh pointed out that the laying period of commercial layers has become increasingly longer. Previously, chickens were generally kept until around 90 weeks of age, whereas current farming practices allow production cycles to extend to 120 weeks. This extended production period could potentially increase the population of productive laying hens by approximately 30%.

“Previously, the rearing period was around 90 weeks, but now it can reach 120 weeks. This means the population could potentially increase by around 30%. From a population of 391 million birds, the number could reach approximately 521 million. This population growth could also put downward pressure on prices,” he stated.

In addition to changes in production cycles, uneven GPS import patterns can also trigger oversupply during certain periods. Asrokh cited GPS imports in 2024, which were not distributed evenly throughout the year. No imports took place from January to March, while imports were concentrated between April and December. This pattern could potentially lead to a buildup in DOC production in subsequent periods.

In the layer segment, Asrokh noted that the chicken population has actually begun to decline due to limited DOC supplies. However, next year’s production will also be influenced by the number of GPS birds that form the current breeding population.

“For the layer segment, this year’s impact stems from DOC imports three years ago, which means layer DOC production in 2023. Meanwhile, production in 2027 will depend on the 2024 GPS population, which was lower than the previous year. The GPS population serving as the basis for this year’s production is around 30,200 birds, while next year’s figure is estimated at only around 26,000. This means the layer situation could improve next year in terms of DOC availability,” he said.

Turning to broilers, Asrokh projected that Indonesia’s national DOC production would reach approximately 3.9 billion birds in 2027. Based on weekly production projections, DOC supply in early 2027 is expected to range between 75 million and 76 million birds per week. Production is then projected to decline, reaching its lowest point in June–July, before recovering in the third quarter and continuing to increase through the fourth quarter.

This pattern is a particular concern because GPS imports in 2026 will begin to affect DOC production in the second half of 2027. Accordingly, GPS import arrangements need to be aligned with projected market demand to prevent supply pressures during that period.

He emphasized that decisions regarding GPS imports should not be based solely on current requirements. The government and industry players need to carefully assess their impact on future DOC production, particularly during the third and fourth quarters of 2027.

“We need to examine this situation carefully, as it could potentially create significant challenges in 2027, particularly during the third and fourth quarters,” he concluded.

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