As the fourth quarter of 2026 begins, the El Niño phenomenon is intensifying, increasing the risk of extreme heat and prolonged drought in various parts of the world. These conditions are expected to affect multiple sectors, including the poultry industry.

According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region reached 3.05°C above average on September 19, 2026. This was the highest level since November 2015, when temperature anomalies in the same region reached approximately 3.0°C.

El Niño is a phenomenon characterized by the warming of ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which subsequently affects wind patterns and rainfall across various parts of the world. One of the most closely monitored areas for tracking the development and intensity of El Niño is the Niño 3.4 region. Located in the central equatorial Pacific, this region serves as a reference for monitoring sea surface temperature changes associated with El Niño, including those that affect weather patterns in Southeast Asia. Several meteorological agencies, including Indonesia’s BMKG and the Philippines’ PAGASA, as well as global climate monitoring centers such as NOAA and the Bureau of Meteorology (BOM), also use Niño 3.4 data as one of the references for calculating the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).

However, El Niño does not always occur with the same intensity. The current phenomenon has even begun to be referred to as a “Super El Niño” in some media reports. Based on its intensity, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) classifies El Niño into four categories: weak, moderate, strong, and very strong. When temperature anomalies reach at least 2°C above normal, the phenomenon falls into the very strong category.

It is important to note that “Super El Niño” is not an official classification used by NOAA or the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Therefore, the El Niño conditions currently being monitored are officially classified as very strong El Niño.

Monitoring over the past several months has shown that El Niño continues to intensify and is expected to peak toward the end of 2026. In Southeast Asia, this strengthening could increase the risk of longer periods of heat and drought, along with reduced rainfall in several areas. These conditions could subsequently affect various sectors that depend on water availability and weather conditions, including poultry farming.

Mitigation Measures for Southeast Asia’s Poultry Industry

For the poultry industry, the threat of heat and drought cannot be ignored. Rising house temperatures cause chickens to drink more water and reduce their feed intake. If these conditions persist, broiler growth may be impaired, egg production may decline, and energy requirements for cooling poultry houses may increase. In addition, low rainfall can affect water availability, corn production, and supplies of other feed ingredients.

These circumstances make preparedness at the farm level increasingly important. Farmers need to ensure adequate water supplies, maintain the operation of cooling systems and electricity, and secure feed supplies throughout prolonged periods of heat and drought. This raises an important question: To what extent have poultry farmers and industry players in Southeast Asia prepared for this increasingly intense El Niño?

Preparedness across Southeast Asia remains uneven. Some farmers have already invested in closed-house infrastructure and established feed reserves. Others, however, still rely on more basic housing systems and equipment.

In Malaysia, farmers operating closed-house systems have increasingly relied on cooling pads, exhaust fans, tunnel ventilation, temperature and humidity sensors, and automated controllers to maintain suitable conditions inside poultry houses. As ambient temperatures rise, ventilation systems operate at higher capacities, while cooling pads help lower indoor temperatures.

However, many farmers continue to use open-house systems in their poultry operations. In comments published by a national media outlet on Thursday (September 18), Prof. Zulkifli Idrus of Universiti Putra Malaysia stated that chickens are vulnerable to prolonged heat exposure because they cannot sweat like humans. Consequently, farmers raising chickens in open-house systems need to pay closer attention to ventilation, fans, shading, water availability, and stocking density.

This article is an excerpt from the International section of the October 2026 issue of Poultry Indonesia magazine. Read the full article in the October 2026 issue of Poultry Indonesia Magazine. For subscriptions or further information, contact WhatsApp or email sirkulasipoultry@gmail.com.

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